Economic Development and Convergence In Sumatra Island, Indonesia
Abstrak
Pulau Sumatera sebagai salah satu penyumbang terbesar perekonomian Indonesia mengalami peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi dari waktu ke waktu, namun percepatan pertumbuhan dari masing-masing provinsi memiliki kecepatan yang berbeda. Konsep konvergensi terjadi ketika terjadi integrasi yang progresif dari wilayah tertentu, sehingga mengurangi kesenjangan indikator ekonomi antar wilayah. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perkembangan dan konvergensi pendapatan per kapita riil yang terjadi di Pulau Sumatera tahun 2011-2020, dengan menggunakan data panel dari 10 provinsi di dalamnya. Pergerakan kinerja ekonomi tiap provinsi digambarkan melalui metode tipologi Klassen yang dibagi menjadi dua periode pengamatan yaitu 2011-2015 dan 2016-2020. Untuk melihat tingkat ketimpangan, nilai rata-rata indeks Williamson adalah 0,426 dan selama tahun pengamatan menunjukkan kecenderungan penurunan nilai yang mengindikasikan terjadinya konvergensi. Pada pengukuran konvergensi sendiri, hasil estimasi konvergensi absolut menunjukkan nilai konvergensi beta (1+β) sebesar 0,8731 atau nilai -0,1269 yang berada di antara nol (0) hingga -1 menunjukkan terjadinya konvergensi pendapatan per kapita riil di Sumatera. Pulau dengan kecepatan konvergensi 12,69%. Sedangkan nilai konvergensi bersyarat menunjukkan kecepatan proses konvergensi di daerah penelitian sebesar 13,25 persen. Artinya, model konvergensi bersyarat memiliki kecepatan konvergensi yang relatif lebih tinggi daripada model konvergensi absolut. Dengan kata lain, model konvergensi bersyarat memiliki kecepatan konvergensi yang relatif lebih tinggi daripada model konvergensi absolut.
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